Laurie Nathan and Ajay Sethi published an article in International Studies Review on "Reducing and Managing Risk: The Dimensions of Strong Ceasefires in Intra-State Conflict."
This article presents a conceptual framework for analyzing the strength of ceasefires in intra-state conflict. The framework is based on the perspectives of ceasefire practitioners. It identifies three determinants of ceasefire risk: the design’s objective quality, being the extent to which the ceasefire arrangements reduce and manage risk; the design’s subjective quality, being the parties’ satisfaction with these arrangements; and the will of the parties to end the conflict through negotiations. Each dimension is negatively associated with risk, such that strong objective quality, strong subjective quality and strong political will reduce the level of risk.