Occasional Paper #18:OP:2 
by Samina Ahmed

If the May 1998 tests removed the veil of nuclear ambiguity in South Asia, India's declared intention to deploy nuclear weapons could lead to an all-out nuclear arms race in the region. Since Pakistan's nuclear weapons policy is India-centric and reactive in nature, Indian production and deployment of nuclear weapons heighten the chances of retaliatory Pakistani deployment. Operation-ready nuclear weapons in South Asia greatly increase the danger of their use, which almost occurred during the Kargil conflict in Kashmir in mid-1999. Examining Pakistan's nuclear directions, this paper recommends a renewed international focus on non-proliferation strategies to curb and reverse the spread of nuclear weapons in South Asia in lieu of arms control measures.

Samina Ahmed is currently a fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.

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