The killings in early March of two soldiers and a policeman in Northern Ireland, in two separate incidents, were the first murders of security forces since the Good Friday Agreement was signed in 1998. Two IRA splinter groups, “Continuity IRA” and “The Real IRA” have claimed responsibility. The Kroc Institute’s John Darby, an expert on the Irish peace process, explains the causes and consequences of the violence.
How serious a threat are these groups to the peace process in Northern Ireland?
Well over 95 percent of the populations in both parts of Ireland support the peace process. But any comprehensive peace agreement is a compromise, and it is not uncommon for splinter groups to form and carry on the revolutionary torch, often literally. Both “The Real IRA” and “Continuity IRA” believe that Sinn Féin, which now works peacefully as part of a power-sharing government, betrayed the republican ideal by signing the Good Friday Agreement. Security forces estimate that support for the two splinter groups is probably only 200-300 people.
Are ‘the Troubles’ returning?
The current view from security sources is that the killings are unlikely to escalate into a return to the Troubles. The mature and cooperative response by political and community leaders has greatly eased public anxiety. Still, there are concerns. First, it seems likely that there will be further attempted murders; after all, there were other attempts to kill members of the security forces over the last decade, which were not reported widely outside Ireland because they were unsuccessful. Second, there has traditionally been a correlation between unemployment and political protest, and investigations into the killings have led to sporadic violence against the police from young people. The test will come during the summer months.
What does the response to the killings say about the potential for sustaining peace?
The reaction of all the major parties has been unprecedented. Northern Ireland’s First Minister, Peter Robinson, and Martin McGuinness, his Sinn Féin Deputy First Minister, condemned the killings unequivocally. Such unanimity is rare in Northern Ireland. All the other parties have presented a united front. The trade unions organized a series of rallies. The main churches have united to condemn the attacks. The loyalist Protestant parties, which had conducted a violent struggle with the IRA, praised McGuinness’s stand.
The silver lining here may be that the killings clarify the problems that still need to be tackled. The most serious, and most ignored, of these are underlying suspicions between Catholics and Protestants and the failure to build a common identity for Northern Ireland. The number of “peace walls,” built to separate and protect local Protestant and Catholic communities from each other, stands at 83, and new ones are being constructed. These are difficult issues, but the united front between traditional opponents in light of last week’s murders could become the platform from which to resolve them.
John Darby’s comments may be used in whole or in part. He can be reached at jdarby@nd.edu.
